Bankroll management is one of the most critical aspects of successful sports betting. Without a proper staking strategy, even the best bettors can go broke due to bad variance. This guide explores flat betting, percentage-based staking, and the Kelly Criterion to help you find the right system for managing your bankroll wisely.

Why Bankroll Staking Matters

A staking strategy determines how much of your bankroll you risk per bet. The goal is to maximize long-term profits while minimizing risk. Bettors who follow structured staking plans are less likely to experience large swings and are more likely to sustain long-term success.

1. Flat Betting Strategy

How It Works

Flat betting involves placing the same stake amount on every bet, regardless of confidence level or odds.

Example: If you have a £1,000 bankroll and decide to stake £20 per bet (2%), you bet this amount consistently, no matter the odds.

Pros & Cons

Advantages:

• Simple to follow and reduces emotional decision-making.
• Low risk, helping protect against large losing streaks.

Disadvantages:

• Does not adjust for perceived betting value (you stake the same regardless of edge).
• Slower bankroll growth compared to other systems.

Best For: Beginners, casual bettors, and those looking for long-term stability.

2. Percentage-Based Staking

How It Works

With percentage-based staking, you wager a fixed percentage of your current bankroll rather than a set amount.

Example: If your strategy is to bet 2% per wager, and you have a £1,000 bankroll, your first bet is £20. If your bankroll increases to £1,500, your next stake would be £30 (2% of £1,500).

Pros & Cons

Advantages:

• Adjusts with bankroll size, preventing over-betting during losing streaks.
• Increases stakes during winning streaks, maximizing gains.

Disadvantages:

• Can lead to very small bet sizes after multiple losses.
• Requires discipline to track and adjust stakes correctly.

Best For: Intermediate bettors who want flexibility while controlling risk.

3. Kelly Criterion

How It Works

The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical staking formula that determines the optimal bet size based on perceived value.

To calculate your bet size using the Kelly Criterion, use the following formula:

Bet size percentage = (Edge divided by Odds minus 1) multiplied by 100.

Where:

• Edge is your estimated probability of winning minus the bookmaker’s implied probability.
• Odds are the decimal odds of the bet.

Example Calculation

You find a bet at odds of 2.50 and estimate the probability of winning at 45%. The bookmaker’s implied probability is 40%, meaning you have a 5% edge.

Using the formula:

5% divided by 1.50, then multiplied by 100, gives you a recommended stake of 3.3% of your bankroll.

Pros & Cons

Advantages:

• Maximizes growth by betting more when your edge is higher.
• Uses a structured, mathematical approach to bet sizing rather than gut instinct.

Disadvantages:

• Requires accurate probability estimates, or it can lead to overbetting.
• Can be too aggressive if used without a fractional Kelly system.

Best For: Advanced bettors who can accurately assess probabilities and find +EV bets.

Which Staking System is Right for You?

The best staking system depends on your risk tolerance, experience level, and betting style:

• Beginners – Flat betting is best for low risk and consistency.
• Intermediate bettors – Percentage-based staking offers better risk control and bankroll growth.
• Advanced bettors – The Kelly Criterion is optimal for maximizing profits, but only if you can estimate value correctly.

Final Thoughts: The Key to Long-Term Betting Success

A solid staking strategy is just as important as picking winning bets. Whether you use flat betting, percentage-based staking, or the Kelly Criterion, the key is staying disciplined and managing risk effectively.

By choosing the right bankroll staking system, you can protect your funds, reduce volatility, and increase your chances of long-term profitability.

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